my first stock picks
I have no idea what I'm doing with stocks. But I know how to read documentation, so I figured I'd approach this like evaluating a new framework: check the fundamentals, look for red flags, and avoid anything that sounds too good to be true.
Three picks. All based on actual filings, not Reddit sentiment.
freshworks (FRSH)
SaaS company serving 50,000+ organizations with customer service and IT management tools. The kind of boring enterprise software that just works.
| Metric (Q2 2025) | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $204.7M |
| YoY Growth | 18% |
| Free Cash Flow | $53M |
| Net Loss | Still negative, but shrinking |
What I liked: no single customer represents more than 1% of recurring revenue. That's diversification. If one big client churns, it doesn't tank the company.
The losses concern me, but the trajectory is improving. Free cash flow is positive and growing. They're not burning through runway.
krispy kreme (DNUT)
This one's a gamble. Revenue dropped 13% YoY in Q2 2025. The stock has been beaten down. But I saw something in the 10-Q that made me think there's a turnaround play here.
They're shifting from owning everything to franchising everything. Fewer assets, less overhead, more scale. The playbook McDonald's used decades ago.
Current state:
- 18,000+ points of access globally
- 19 new shops opened in Q2 2025
- Expanding into Spain, Brazil, Germany
Management explicitly outlined the plan: refranchise, outsource logistics, cut labor costs. They're not hiding from the problems. Whether they execute is another question.
I'm treating this as a lottery ticket with better odds than most lottery tickets.
payoneer (PAYO)
Cross-border payments for SMBs, freelancers, and marketplaces. They're plugged into Amazon, Upwork, and a bunch of other platforms that need to move money internationally.
The B2B payments market is worth $20+ trillion. Payoneer is picks-and-shovels for that gold rush.
Unlike crypto payment startups, they're building on existing rails with established partners. Boring, but sticky. Once a business integrates with Payoneer, switching costs are real.
No flashy consumer app. Just infrastructure that processes money.
let's see what happens
| Company | Thesis |
|---|---|
| Freshworks | Steady SaaS growth, diversified customer base |
| Krispy Kreme | Turnaround bet on franchise model |
| Payoneer | Infrastructure play on B2B payments |
I'm documenting this so future me can look back and see if reading financial filings actually translated to returns. Or if I should've just bought index funds like everyone says.
Check back in a year.